Cycles are Perfect - but misunderstood
	
	The concept of Market Cycles evoke strong feelings from anyone who has 
tried to deal with them. Some people swear by them but most swear at them. Their 
notorious reputation comes from what WE expect them to accomplish for us. 
	
	The word Cycle comes from the Greek "Cyklos" which means circle or ring. 
It represents a time period and time only. However long it takes to complete 
whatever it is manifesting is the Length. Several repetitions is the Rhythm or 
Frequency. The extremes it measures is the Amplitude. The relationship or starting 
point of this cycle to another is the Phase.
    		
	Cycles are Natures way of doing business. Everything in our universe 
vibrates. Our senses and sensitive electronics pick up these oscillations. This 
spirit energy combines with other cycles to form all that we know. Therefore 
everything is the same but of different scale or octaves. Cycles are perfect...almost. 
There is just enough of a deviation to cause change. If not, there would be no growth 
or evolution and devolution. The causal element of cycles is not being discussed here. 
That's like talking about religion or politics. What is important is their effect on 
us whether assumed or real.

	Market cycles found on charts are first sensed or felt then identified and 
quantified. A big problem is that they do not repeat every time to the Nth decimal 
point, nor do they turn on a dime. A day is a day but how many are exactly 24 hours 
long sunrise to sunrise. Night does not turn into day in a second nor does Spring 
immediately become Summer on June 21st.   

	All markets are the sum total of the different groups of people attuned to 
different cycles and should be analyzed as to their various contributions. The same 
natural laws of attraction and repulsion cause us to act with compulsion to trade 
the way we do as individuals and yet leave our mark on a chart as part of some group. 
Just like trying to judge a book by its cover will not help identify the finer details 
inside, neither will analyzing a chart in its totality offer any insights relating to 
specific internal future moments. When looking at any chart (stock, commodity etc.), 
the data available determines the largest cycle either by appearance or its effect. One 
consolation we get from Nature, is that the bigger cycles will tell you where the 
smaller ones must go and the smaller ones will tell you where the larger ones are going.

	We live in a multi-dimensional world. Our perspective of the cycle or actually  
the effect it has on us is not flat. Imagine a spinning bicycle wheel going around and 
around. Walking in front of the wheel has not changed the time required to make one 
revolution. Our view of it has changed, so now it appears to go up and down. The same 
holds true for the effect it might have on us. Tilting the wheel or viewing from a 
different an angle can produce still other results.

	The data which makes up our cyclic composite on charts or screens should be 
analyzed carefully. By the time we see it, its' purity has already been tampered with 
through vendors, broadcasters, price reporters and other human conditions. How accurate 
is measuring the depth of bath water while standing in the bathtub? Exotic filtering 
and over manipulating the data removes and distorts the essence of what we're looking 
for in the first place.

	The love-hate relationship we have with cycles is based on our assumptions. 
As convenient as we would like them to be, our expectations are unrealistic. We ask 
too much of them while at the same time ignore some of their more basic qualities. 
What we believe is not the same as what we know. Nature and her cycles have done quite 
well so far. Enter the human condition and analysis of the influence on people being 
done with dollar oriented motivations, the correct solution becomes difficult. It seems 
ironic that the same understanding and respect mankind has shown for Nature shows up in 
the markets when people are quick to blame their losses on those damn cycles that don't 
work right.


MarkeTree...
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